Firstly, apologies for not having posted anything for a while. My time has mostly been taken up with work, curling up in a little ball and weeping about the antics of our glorious leaders, and sundry other early-summer activities. And secondly, apologies for this post just being another boring plug, this time for PledgeBank, the latest mySociety project, which launches today.
PledgeBank is designed to solve what I'm told are called `collective action problems' -- things that you want to do, but can only get done if enough other people will help. Why go out on a limb and say you'll do something difficult or expensive or embarrassing if you don't know whether enough other people will turn up to make it worthwhile? Anyway, PledgeBank is designed to help you get around that problem by letting people sign up to say they'll take part, and telling you when enough people have done so for your plan to succeed. Go and check the site out....
This is also one of those rare occasions when work and displeasure collide: I Heartily Endorse NO2ID's pledge, which reads,
I will refuse to register for an ID card and will donate £10 to a legal defence fund but only if 10,000 other people will also make this same pledge.
-- sign up by following that link or by texting `pledge refuse' to 60022 on any mobile.
Comments
Posted by Roy Badami, Monday, 13 June 2005 22:35 (link):
I think it is somewhat disingenious of the NO2ID campaign to invite people to pledge to refuse to register without bothering to tell them the expected amount of the penalty that they'll be making themselves liable for...
(Yes, I know I can look it up, but if they're trying to encourage me to join their campaign of civil disobedience, they'll get far more respect from me if they make it clear just what it is that I'm likely to be risking by doing so...)
-roy
Posted by Roy Badami, Monday, 13 June 2005 22:48 (link):
Ok, so I've looked it up, and the answer is £2,500. This is a game for the very rich and the very poor; for those who can aford to lose £2,500 and for those who don't have £2,500 to lose.
Also, keeping to the pledge would mean that I would be unable to renew my passport or my driving licence...
I don't like ID cards, but I'm afriad that at the moment the strength of my feeling isn't strong enough for me to want to risk the possible consequences, namely:
-roy
Posted by Maria Ng, Tuesday, 14 June 2005 00:21 (link):
Fair enough. But think how you might support those who do go on and risk those consequences. Refusal to co-operate with ID registration, should it be passed into law, will be the strongest weapon we have with which to oppose it. If enough people refuse the system will be unworkable. No doubt the government will try to make examples of some ID resisters, but then the wider movement can support the people who are targeted. If people are denied essential services because of not having an ID card then maybe there will be doctors and other professionals who will be willing to provide those services regardless. Having a pledge like this means that people will feel more able to take a stand on the issue knowing that many many other people will be taking the same risks.
Posted by Adam Bernard, Tuesday, 14 June 2005 10:17 (link):
There's a problem with knowing how many of the 10,000 will change their mind when they realise it means forfeiting their driving license and passport. I do care a lot about this issue, but I'm still considering whether I think that it's worth it - I'm not going to sign up unless I'm sure I mean it. I don't believe 10,000 to be a large enough number to make a difference without action (if there were, say, 500,000 people signed up then the fact of that much support might be persuasive in itself).
Posted by Roy Badami, Tuesday, 14 June 2005 13:19 (link):
My thoughts exactly.
The vast majority of the 10,000 won't go through with it when they realise the consequences. This would be true anyway, but it's doubly so because of the way the pledge is being promoted without any discussion of the consequences.
Besides, I'm skeptical that 10,000 people is really enough, even if everyone did go through with it... If over 99.97% of the adult population go ahead and register when asked, do you really think that the scheme will be branded an instant failure?
10,000 people refusing to register is a far cry from the 18 million people who refused to pay their poll tax.
-roy
Posted by Chris Lightfoot, Tuesday, 14 June 2005 13:20 (link):
Well, it's early days yet.
Posted by Roy Badami, Wednesday, 15 June 2005 01:41 (link):
Well, it's doing quite well... 25% of the 10,000 already.
But what I meant is I might be more inclined to sign the pledge if it said 'if 1 million other people will also make the same pledge'. 1 million still isn't a huge number, less that 2.5% of the adult population, and a small number compared to the poll tax non payers, whatever figures you believe...
But it's getting to the kind of figure where there is stength in numbers... I'm sorry, 10,000 ID card protestors is a joke. No way will I pay £2,500 to support such a miniscule movement...
I'm not prepared to sign the pledge, because I'm not prepared to take the risk unless I have rather more support than 10,000 people (and as I mentioned before I'm skeptical about the proportion of pledgers who will actually honour their pledge)
Posted by Peter Clay, Tuesday, 14 June 2005 13:28 (link):
18 million? That's about half the taxpaying country. Do you have a source for that statistic, I'm interested in the history of the poll tax revolt.
Posted by Roy Badami, Tuesday, 14 June 2005 20:08 (link):
I got it from Wikipedia.
I confess that I find the figure somewhat surprising...
Posted by Phil Armstrong, Tuesday, 14 June 2005 21:43 (link):
"up to 18 million" the wikipedia article says. It does sound a very high figure. There's a paper on the subject in the Journal of Public Economics entitled "Fiscal anarchy in the UK: modelling poll tax noncompliance" which sounds like it might have useful data, but I can only get the abstract.
Anyone in academia reading this who can get hold of a copy of the full text?
Posted by Phil Armstrong, Wednesday, 15 June 2005 15:31 (link):
Having had a look at the paper (thanks!), the Appendix on data sources says that the mean non-payment rate (by local authority) was 28% of the registered population. This is an average over the three fiscal years 1990/91,1991/92 and 1992/93.
The paper has maps of the UK showing the nonpayment rates for individual years; unfortunately the scan is b/w and has pushed all the shaded areas except the pure white ones to black & the resolution is too low to read the key! However, the maps do show a clear increase in non-payment rates over the three years, which given that the mean is 28%, suggests that is was significantly higher in the final year.
If the adult (>18) population of the UK is about 44 million (>16 is 20.2%, UK population ~ 59 million people {UK 2001 census}) then 18 million is about 40%. That figure doesn't seem out of line with the data in this paper, especially if you include the people who dropped off the electoral register (at least 1/3 million according to a Charter88 paper, but could be more).
The 28% mean in the paper suggests a minimum of 12 million non-payers with more in the final year. 18 million may be a little high, but certaily isn't out of line with these figures. I really wasn't aware that non-payment was that widespread frankly.
Posted by Matthew, Wednesday, 15 June 2005 23:19 (link):
Peter,
You want to read "Politics of the poll tax" by David Butler (http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0198278764/qid=1118873867/sr=1-3/ref=sr_1_0_3/202-7342215-1596644), which is a fantastic book about how badly things can go wrong in government almost by accident. I wouldn't pay £33 for it though, you'll find it in most libraries.
Matt
Posted by Matthew, Wednesday, 15 June 2005 23:26 (link):
I forgot to add what it says. By September 1991, when the poll tax was in its last year, in Scotland 12% of the 89/90 tax had not be paid, 23% of the 90/91 and 77% of the 91/92. In rural and suburban England collection rates were over 90%. Urban areas saw 'chronic' non-collection.
Overall though 15% of Scots hadn't paid after the first year, so I doubt it was ever as high as 18m nationwide.
Posted by James Hammerton, Monday, 20 June 2005 23:50 (link):
I suspect that the 10,000 target is the minimum being aimed for. Also I see this effort as part of an ongoing campaign. Getting a large number to pledge to do this will help generate interest in the issue, even if 10,000 isn't enough to stop the cards.
I agree with an earlier commenter that the impact of sticking to the pledge should have been made clear. It is an oversight that should be corrected.
Anyway the main effort now should be to pressure MPs to vote against the bill. The second reading is on the 28th June. Go to www.WriteToThem.com where you can find out who your MP is and tell them what you think of the scheme.
Posted by Godfrey Bartlett, Tuesday, 14 June 2005 11:06 (link):
I guess nice liberal folk in 1930s Germany made similar apologies for not inconveniencing themselves. The massive erosion of civil liberties we've seen recently is pushing towards an eventual police state. That will be even more of an inconvenience! The national ID database (if it can be made to work) accelerates this process.
I can't afford £2500, but I'm happy to give up passport and driving licence if that's a condition of being a free Briton.
The point is surely to get the journo's sufficiently interested that they start representing the anti-ID voice. Whether it's 20,000 or 500,000, it's a question of getting to a tipping-point of hostile press reports where the whole thing becomes such a pain in the arse to the Government that they move on to some other way of screwing up our lives.
Posted by dsquared, Tuesday, 14 June 2005 18:05 (link):
I will shut up and stop whining, as long as 1 person posts a holiday photograph.
Posted by Chris Lightfoot, Wednesday, 15 June 2005 00:36 (link):
Well, strictly this web log post was about PledgeBank, not about ID cards. But who am I to resist an invasion of my privacy by refusing to post a holiday photo?
(Well, going to the pub is like going on holiday....)
Posted by Michael, Thursday, 23 June 2005 08:17 (link):
Totally off-topic, but have you seen your mates in the English Democrats have hired Garry Bushell as their candidate in today's by-election?
Posted by Matt Freestone, Tuesday, 26 July 2005 13:55 (link):
For those of us that are against ID cards, but couldn't truthfully sign the pledge not to register (which has now passed its target), there is now a weaker pledge available to support the people that do refuse.
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